Iran and the Bomb: What’s the Cost of In/Action?

February 21, 2006

Down at the Winds of Change.net, the Armed Liberal and Trent Telenko have been discussing what to do with the Iranian situation. I have made my own comments at WoC, but I am repeating them here because I think laying out the choices in this manner really helps in providing constructive discussion on the Iranian Question.

Weighing the Concequences: Doing some Bombing v. Just Doing Nothing
Note that the “Doing Some Bombing” concequences are mostly short-term issues, while “Just Doing Nothing” are long term issues.

Bomb Iran Leave Iran Alone
  1. With Iran next to Iraq, this will spiral to a wide protracted war in both countries, including severe attack against US forces in Iraq directly by Iran or via Sadr et al; this sets back any progress achieved in Iraq by the US. Israel and Lebanon are also at great risk.
  2. The cost of this war would be great; how long before Iran and Iraq become America’s Afghanistan (Soviet Invasion)?
  3. Potentially galvanize Iranians to side with the regime.
  4. Oil prices will skyrocket due to M.E. instability and Iranian cutting off their supplies.
  5. High oil prices will EMPOWER Hugo Chavez, Saudi Arabia and Russia even more than now.
  6. Attacking yet another Muslim country, an Islamic State, in such a short time span will only lend credence that the “West is against Islam” line we keep hearing.
  7. Any attack by the US will be met by an attack on Israel. Then we would have to step-in and help fight with the Israelis. This just adds to point 6.
  1. Iran may decide to take out Israel or Iraq (and US forces in Iraq) at any time, fulfilling Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s many threats against the West and Israel.
  2. Secretly hand the bomb to a third-party for detonation via some tanker in a port city - virtually untracable to Iran
  3. If declared openly nuclear weapons, may help Arabs and Muslims rally around the Shiite Iranians as the vanguard of the "Islamic Revolution"
  4. If declared openly nuclear weapons, it will spark a nuke race in the Middle East to counter the non-Arab Shiite state of Iran and because US takes a nuclear Iran more seriously than them.
  5. Iran exports technology to other countries, like Venezuela which was recently discussed.
  6. Continued nuclear weapons development by Iran effectively kills any weight of the NPT, providing further proof that 1) NPT enforcement is a joke; 2) States against the US and the West should follow Iran’s footsteps.

(more…)

Quick Links: Hamas Votes, Psiphon and State Power, Japan in Central Asia, John Woo on FISA, and Beer

Today’s Quick Links
1. Hamas: Winning the Candidates, not Votes?

Via Chief Wiggum and Coming Anarchy, comes this interesting story:

A close look at the final results of last month’s Palestinian election shows that the apparent landslide that gave Hamas 74 of the 132 seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council and only 45 to the once-dominant Fatah movement was, in the words of one analyst, “an optical illusion.”

Read more Here

2. Can “Psiphon” Beat China’s State Censorship?

Non-State actors continues to undermine state control over information:

[A] band of Internet volunteers headquartered in Cambridge has launched the Tor Project, which uses people’s spare Internet bandwidth to help others bypass the censors. And in Canada, computer scientists at the University of Toronto are working on a similar project, called Psiphon.

Anonymizer and Tor have attracted strong support from the US government. American military and intelligence services are major customers of Anonymizer, because it lets them scan foreign Internet sites without revealing their identities. The Voice of America, a broadcasting service sponsored by the US government, uses Anonymizer to help people in Iran tune in, despite their country’s efforts to block the signal.

Read More

3. Forget Russia, China and Russia, there’s also Japan in Central Asia

From PINR (published by Asia Times):

Japan added a new dimension to its engagement with Central Asia with the formation of the Central Asia Plus Japan (including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan) initiative in August 2004. While low-key compared with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO - China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), Japan through the Central Asia Plus Japan initiative is likely to play an increasingly significant geopolitical role, not just in Central Asia but also in Eurasia. An important question is how Japan’s new regional initiative will impact the SCO, which is largely considered the de facto regional organization in Central Asia.

Read More

4. John Yoo on FISA and the War on Terror

Interesting short interview by Foreign Policy:

While an attorney with the U.S. Justice Department after September 11, his legal memos helped lay the groundwork for what some see as the Bush administration’s constitutional power grabs—from the treatment of enemy prisoners to domestic wiretapping. FP recently asked Yoo, now a law professor at Berkeley, about amending FISA, ending the war on terror, and whether torture works.

Read More

5. Refrigerator with Built-In Beer Tap!

Words cannot describe StrategyUnit’s Joy:
HomePub

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