StrategyUnit

I was just about to follow-up on my previous Russia and Eurasia post when CS Monitor (CSM) today published “Russia, China looking to form ‘NATO of the East’?” and opens with this foreboding paragraph:

Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian military confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say.

(Source: Wikipedia. Blue = Member, Green = Observer)

Pretty scary stuff, eh? Its an enticing leading paragraph, but the truth is a little milder.

Brief History of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
The Shanghai Five, as it was originally called, was originally comprised of China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and founded in 1996; it was later renamed the Shanghai Co-operation Organization, when Uzbekistan joined in 1999. Originally established to counter Islamic terrorist threats located in the Western China and its neighboring countries, SCO has increasingly become a vehicle to:

• further China’s quest for securing oil resources;
• enhance its role as a major player in regional security;
• and, to a lesser extant, as a united Sino-Russian bloc against growing U.S. presence in the region.

(From an old paper of mine)

Common Interests
Between China and Russia (the twin-pillars by which SCO stand), the obvious interest is blocking U.S. influence the Central Asia - which grow greatly after 9/11 with US forces, especially in with bases Afghanistan, Uzbekistan (recently kicked out), Kyrgyzstan and not to mention NATO bases. China is uncomfortable with U.S. forces so nearby and Russia sees the sight of American might occupying former Soviet military bases in Central Asia as a supreme insult.

Specifically, China has been hungry for energy resources (oil and gas) in Central Asia; American presence and its own interests for energy is a competing threat. But recently, the Neoconservative/Democracy-Push of the Bush Administration has rushed along another concern for China and Russia:

“Russia and China feel that the U.S. has been too aggressive in Central Asia,” Lai said. “The U.S. is threatening their national security. The first thing is the U.S. is trying to put [forward] the democratic movements, some kind of people’s movements, and propel them into power and then, hopefully, these new governments would be pro-U.S.”

China, in particular, was nervous that the people’s revolution in Kyrgyzstan in March might prove infectious — not just in former Soviet Central Asia but also in its own province of Xinjiang, where there is a strong movement for independence among ethnic Uyghurs.
(RFE Link, Oct 2005)

Obstacles towards SCO as NATO
Looking at the map above and keeping in mind the raw resources of the Central Asian states plus Russia and China, SCO can look like an intimidating bloc. Yet most of the countries, while resource rich like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are but minor players in the world scene with most folks not being able to find these countries on the map.

Indeed as James Joyner alludes to, SCO with Russia and China does not mirror the powerful, rich and western NATO bloc. All but two countries (Japan and Russia) in the G-8 is a member of NATO, and Russia only being in G-8 as a token gift for Yeltsin’s reforms.

“The rationale behind this is understandable but it comes from a position of weakness, not strength. Russia and China both have far more to gain by being on the good side of the United States and benefiting from free trade with the world’s biggest economy than by forming a weak but antagonistic alliance. “(James Joyner, Oct 2005)

Obviously, it is a China and Russia that run the SCO show, but even they have a brittle relationship. Even CSM which begins with its foreboding leading article tampers down the mood towards the end of its article:

While the SCO’s potential looks vast on paper, experts say internal rivalries would preclude it from evolving into a NATO-like security bloc. “What kind of allies could Russia and China be?” says Akady Dubnov, an expert with the Vremya Novostei newspaper. “The main question for them in Central Asia is who will gain the upper hand.”

Indeed, a part of Russia believe in the “Yellow Scare” - the invasion of the “Mongol horde”, bringing a China that borders Korea and Japan at one end and Ukraine on the other. The fear is more of the far east siberian territories being overrun by Chinese migration than actual war. The resource rich far east siberia only has 6-8 million Russians with that number declining, with ~60-80 million Chinese nearby at the other side of the border.

The influx of Chinese migrant workers has become a topical issue in some Central Asian states as well as in Russia’s Siberia, under populated but rich in natural resources. According to Russia’s Interior Ministry, every year more than 500,000 Chinese “tourists” come to Russia, but not all of them return to China, staying on illegally.

Russian officials and politicians have long voiced concern over the alleged influx of illegal aliens from “far abroad”, mainly China. There are more than a million Chinese illegal migrants in Russia, according to Russia’s Interior Ministry. Last April, Russia and China signed a consular agreement aimed at regulating migration.
(CDI Weekly Link, May 2002)

Russia has also recently snubbed China over the recent project for building an oil pipeline to the Asian Market. China and Japan both competed for the bid; while no deal is finalized until the pipes are laid, Russia did choose for the building of a pipeline to cater to the Japanese with their help. Thus, despite the recent show of military cooperation in the form of exercises between Russia and China, when it comes to putting money where their mouths are, Russian opt for Japan over China.

Beyond Russia and China, the Central Asian states are not eager to fully fall in line with both with Russia and China’s interests. Indeed, as smaller states it is in their interests to pursue a multi-vector policy of playing Russia, China and the United states against each other.

Kazakhstan’s Nazerbayev has been the most vocal voice of championing a multi-vectored foreign policy and avoid reliance on a single power, be it Russia, China or the US. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have followed in Kazakhstan’s approach. See more on this at Radio Free Europe, “Central Asia: A Year In Review “.

For Russia: Less Dugin, More Primakov

No article on Central Asia and the former Soviet-Space is seemingly complete without quoting Alexander Dugin, one of the most extreme advocates of Eurasianism. Thus, CS Monitor closes its article with the following:

“It’s very important that regional powers are showing the will to resolve Eurasian problems without the intrusion of the US,” says Alexander Dugin, chair of the International Eurasian Movement, whose members include leading Russian businessmen and politicians. “Step by step we’re building a world order not based on the unipolar hegemony of the US.”
(Christian Science Monitor, Link Oct 2005)

Alexander Dugin has always taken a anti-West (cultural, political and economic) stance and believed the need to “restore” and impose a Monroe Doctrine of a Eurasian sphere under Russia. But Russia’s involvement with SCO is not about creating Durgin’s Eurasian Dream, but rather the Primakov Doctrine: The need for Russia to restore its geopolitical status and role in the world by actively seeking built a multi-polar world with Russia as one of its pole. Unlike Dugin, Primakov sees the need to cooperate with the West to help rebuild Russia’s power, but unlike the Westerners Primakov doesn’t see the need to bend to the every whim of the West.

While Russia does seek closer ties with China, it will not sacrifice important economic and strategic links with the West to do so. What it seeks is to restore its Great Power status by actively engaging all important states and regions in the world, which not only include China but the U.S., Europe, the Middle East and so on.

The United States should keep a watchful eye in the SCO alliance and indeed should continue to push for observer status in the SCO, as it has been. And while the US (true or not) continue to seemingly push for democratic revolutions in Central Asia and the Caucasus, it must make some gesture to show it does not want to destabilize China or Russia nor alienate them from Central Asia.

Big Questions Remaining
The big question is what happens if India (which has been asking) joins SCO? And what about the other organizations existing in the area, such as the Eurasian Economic Community? More to come…